The recipe for dominating your fantasy football draft is simple. Draft your stud players to carry your group early within the first handful of rounds and then focus on acquiring depth in the later rounds of your draft to help balance out your lineup between guys who are your weekly starters, guys who can fill in on any given week, and late round dart throws that can potentially catapult your team to the next level. I will be listing my top 3 late round dart throws that will potentially help elevate your team should you draft them.
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WR New York Jets
ADP WR 69 (nice) 202 overall
Denzel Mims is a prime candidate to instantly produce this year for the New York Jets. Mims has a lot to offer as a potential deep threat and red zone target with his freakish ability to bring down highly contested balls and should be the teams go to deep threat player as Jameson Crowder isn’t really a deep threat and more of a threat with the intermediate routes while Perriman will be on the outside opposite of Mims. The Jets invested a second round pick on him in hopes that he can form chemistry with Darnold and help the offense that lacks explosiveness. I also expect Sam Darnold to take a step forward this year after having Mono last year and missing 3 games and having a year of the Adam Gase offense under his belt. This should boost the passing game thus helping the case for Mims. Furthermore The Jets subtracted a total of 154 targets between Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas in free agency and only added Breshad Perriman through free agency on a one year deal and Darnold is going to have to throw to somebody besides Crowder and dumping it off to Le’veon Bell. These targets may skew more to Perriman early, but I expect Mims to establish himself as the season goes on. To add because Mims is a deep threat he doesn’t need a ridiculous amount of targets to be fantasy relevant. The only thing stopping Mims from being drafted higher that the 16th round is Breshad Perriman who is going in the 10th round for the same fact of the vacated targets and opportunity in New York. I do not see Perriman being as good as people may expect and don’t think he is talented enough to be a clear wide receiver 1 or 2 on a team. This is his 5th year in the league and hasn’t really done anything in his previous 4 years that should warrant a breakthrough. At some point you are what you are in the NFL and Perriman is just a guy. Don’t be surprised if Mims is similar to last years version of DK Metcalf in terms of production because the sky is the limit with potential for this guy and he is basically free in drafts.
TE Dallas Cowboys
ADP TE 21 170 Overall
If you’ve recently played fantasy football you probably know that finding a very good tight end to help you every week is very scarce outside of George Kittle and Travis Kelce, along with a tier underneath of Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, and Mark Andrews. In order to draft one of these 5, you are going to need to spend a 5th round pick at the very minimum. If you strike out on those guys you’re looking at the Hayden Hursts and Austin Hoopers of the world, which isn’t bad but you should pair up one of these guys with a high upside guy like Jarwin later on. However, I feel very strong on Jarwin and think he can make his mark similar to how Andrews and Waller did this past year. According to Fantasypros.com the 2 most owned tight ends on playoff teams were Waller at 63% and Andrews at 59%. You heard that correctly not Kittle or Kelce. So save yourself from spending that second round pick on tight end and really deep dive on finding the next guy and Jarwin will be that guy after the departure of Jason Witten. Now you must be thinking “what does Witten have anything to do with this he wasn’t any good last year”. While you may not totally be wrong, Witten did see 83 targets, which are now gone to Oakland. This leaves Jarwin not only the starting job, but the targets associated with being a full time payer. Jarwin had 41 targets while Witten had 83. Combining for a total of 124 targets which would’ve ranked third in the league last year behind Kelce (136) and Ertz (135). Why can’t Jarwin put up these many targets? If a Jason Witten fresh out of retirement playing 70% of the snaps can command 83 targets and finish last year as the 11th best TE, then Jarwin playing nearly 100% of the snaps and being miles ahead of Witten in terms of talent at this stage should be primed for a top 7 finish and may even peep into the top 5. To add, Jarwin has no notable competition at all. His backup Dalton Schultz has 13 career catches in 2 years and is mostly a blocking tight end. He is no threat whatsoever to Jarwin, and the cowboys even believe so by paying him like a starting tight end in the league with a recent 4 year 22-million-dollar deal. Ill be taking Jarwin every time at his 14th round value and you should too if you want to smell the playoffs.
Rb Philadelphia Eagles
ADP Rb 49 133 Overall
I can honestly say that life has 3 guarantees. Death, Taxes, and Doug Pederson using a running back by committee approach. Let’s face it, its hard to find rbs this late in a draft that you can honestly feel optimistic about, but I genuinely think Scott has a chance to return value. I fully expect Miles Sanders to be the focal point of this backfield and wouldn’t be surprised if he had a top 5 finish, but Boston Scott can produce even with Sanders. Last year Scott took over the secondary role after Jordan Howard basically went on IR halfway through the season and Darren Sproles for lack of a better term “died” last season. Scott in the last 4 games of the season posted 24.8,13.5,7.9, and 35.8 PPR points respectively according to Sleeper.com. Now the week 17 explosion was when Sanders only played 30% of the snaps due to an injury so we should take that figure with a grain of salt. The other 3 games however Scott averaged 13 opportunities (attempts + targets) per game while playing 37% of the snaps which is normal for a change of pace running back which he will be in 2020 behind sanders. Furthermore, if Sanders does get hurt like he did in week 17 you could make the case that Scott would be a top 10 play at the position for period he is out. You cant say the same about some of the other running backs going around his ADP such as Duke Johnson and Nyheim Hines. I see Scott as a bootleg version of Tarik Cohen and James White who are going multiple rounds ahead of him even though all 3 have the same role in their respective offenses. The possible opportunity along with the expected stand-alone value make Scott the best value Running back past the 10th round.